Former Goldman Sachs and Fortress trader, Mike Novogratz has projected that the cryptocurrency market will reach $20 trillion. As a billionaire investor, Novogratz is bullish on the direction of the digital currency market and even went so far as to say that the January “bubble” wasn’t really a bubble.
Novogratz was interviewed by Erik Schatzker at the Bloomberg Invest Summit in New York. The conversation was focused on the economics of the crypto market, and the “bitcoin bubble” in early 2018. Novogratz corrected Schatzker on his terminology, and suggested that the January bull run was not a bubble but rather a rally. He compared it to the dot com bubble that reached a valuation of $6 trillion before crashing to $1 trillion. By comparison, the total market cap of the top 100 cryptocurrencies is less than $1 trillion according to CoinMarketCap.
The billionaire stated that the digital currency market will rebound from its latest correction and surpass all-time-highs on its way to a $20 trillion market valuation, twenty times the entire size of the market today.
One thing that was not mentioned in the interview was the ICO market. Although regulators have been cracking down, it continues to grow. It’s a small piece of the total market with an estimated $4.9 billion raised through ICOs in 2017 according to Crunchbase. This amount has already been surpassed in the first half of 2018, with $5.3 billion raised so far according to ICO Data.
Novogratz said that cryptocurrency is a “global revolution” where the dot com bubble was “only a US thing.” At that time, wealthy people in the United States were participating in the market. Today, crypto is everywhere, and people at all income levels are participating. The investor cited examples of “kids in Bangladesh buying coins” as well as people in Tokyo, South Korea, China, India and Russia.
Novogratz based his prediction on real indicators, statistics and his professional analysis of the industry as a whole. There is a tremendous increase in institutional money being injected into the industry which will add to its size, stability and legitimacy in the eyes of other investors. He said that the latest bull rally was not triggered by institutional investors however, but rather by retail investors and individual traders.
According to Blocktower founder Ari Paul, in order to increase institutional money in the market, stable and robust custodian solutions will need to be developed. Coinbase and more traditional finance companies such as Susquehanna have already begun to develop custodian products, which may attract more institutional investors to the market.
Novogratz does not believe that the market will hit $20 trillion immediately. He believes that large conglomerates like pension funds will eventually enter the space when several moving parts begin to work in unison, such as custodian solutions, more big banks like Goldman Sachs getting involved, and the present Bloomberg index for tracking performance. At that point, he believes that people will FOMO into the market again. The difference however, is that the last major FOMO round was at the retail level. This time, it will be among institutional investors.